Other Voices: Election Viewpoint From The Right

(Other Voices is part of a series of posts by guest bloggers. Today’s post is written by Alex Hays, executive director of the Mainstream Republicans of Washington.)

National Significance

2009 was the first election since 1999 not defined by George W. Bush at the national level. Republicans managed an upset win over the immensely better funded John Corzine for the governorship of New Jersey and a noteworthy victory for the governorship of Virginia.

Presidential spokesman Robert Gibbs insisted that the election was not a referendum on President Barrack Obama and the policy agenda of the Democratic Party. Republicans, of course, reject this view and are emboldened by the election.

Historically, American voters have a tendency to seek balance. After the big wins they provided to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 I fully expected Republicans to win in 2009 and I further expect major Republican gains in 2010.

One possible complication for the Republicans is how the special election for the NY 23 U.S. House seat unfolded. Local Republican Party officials nominated a popular, but unusually liberal, Republican State House member. A far right candidate emerged late in the election on the Conservative Party line and became a national cause célèbre for various talk radio hosts and pundits. This led to a weird chain of events where Sarah Palin endorsed the Conservative Party candidates, the Republican nominee suspended her campaign, shortly thereafter endorsed the Democrat and the Democrat won.

Both the right wing of the Republican Party and the moderate wing have taken the events of NY 23 to offer radically different meanings. Conservatives have already voiced a preference for losing elections to a Democrat rather than winning with a moderate Republican. Moderates see the ability of the Republican Party to operate as a big tent coalition threatened by demands for ideological purity and reject the notion that more voters can be attracted to the Republican Party by reducing the number of candidates who can run for office under the Republican banner.

State and Local Races

The national Republican advantage in 2009 did not manifest itself in Washington State – though some counties did see incumbent city council members turned out in large numbers.

Three legislative special elections were held this year and all three saw moderate Republicans emerge as winners, in two cases defeating more conservative Republicans and in the last race defeating an appointed Democrat.

The hottest races on the ballot were definitely in King County.

A heated primary for King County Executive saw a raft of strong Democrat candidates and the non-partisan (read Republican) Susan Hutchison file. A major spending effort on behalf of Dow Constantine by public employees unions helped him emerge from this crowded field and set up the contest with Hutchison.

Hutchison managed several key endorsements – including at least three prominent Democrats, the Seattle times and every Republican in the state. Constantine operated a straight up partisan Democrat campaign and portrayed Hutchison as a far right Republican. He benefited from more public employee spending, where Hutchison was backed by the local building industry, and came out of the election with a very substantial win with 58%.

The race for the Seattle Mayor started with a bang (defeating Greg Nickels in the primary) and ended with a fizzle with two candidates that failed to catch on with the voters. Joe Mallahan offered a well funded campaign, mostly a self funded campaign, that attracted much of the Seattle establishment in the aftermath of Nickels’ defeat. He promised corporate inspired competence. Mike McGinn had little money and ran the sort of grassroots campaign that always fail — except in movie scripts and apparently Seattle. McGinn promised the people a new breed thoughtful nimbyism.

Referendum 71

A common pattern in Washington State is to have a strong vote out of King County overcome the votes from the remainder of the state. R-71 is an extreme example of this pattern– with King County providing 171,000 net votes for the “yes” side – more than twice the statewide margin of 83,000 votes.
R-71 did not follow a partisan vote pattern; instead it presents us with a case of the urban and suburban versus the rural. Solidly Democratic parts of the state (e. g. rural Southwest Washington) provided a strong “no” vote whereas the overwhelming “yes” vote out of King County was made possible by the support of suburban Republicans.
Surprises from the R-71 vote include the strong “no” vote from Spokane and Pierce Counties – suburban Democrats and Republicans in these two areas did not respond to the “yes” message.

Initiative 1033

It’s always easier to promote a “no” vote and I-1033 fits with this pattern. Early polling showed the measure passing by a wide margin, but faced with a very effective campaign the vote was driven down to 42%. The success of the No on 1033 ads can be seen in the vote pattern: counties served by accessible TV markets had strong “no” where counties that are harder to reach with television (e.g., Southwest Washington) did not see this downward shift.
1033 followed a more typical vote pattern than R-71, excepting stronger than usual “no” votes from many heavily Republican counties. I attribute this to the initiative’s impact on local government and the abundance of trusted local government voices –particularly local government Republicans—who opposed the measure.

by Alex Hays, executive director of the Mainstream Republicans of Washington