(Other Voices is part of a series of posts by guest bloggers. Today’s post is written by George Cheung, director of Win/Win Network.)
The New Math
On November 3rd, voters in Washington State cast ballots decisively against Initiative 1033. This represents the first defeat for conservative ballot maven, Tim Eyman, on a tax-related issue. But what else can be gleaned from this past election? There are two themes that will have an impact far beyond 2009.
1. Rise of Central WA. Most progressive activists write-off Central WA as a conservative wasteland – a place to drive through on the way to Spokane. It is true that Central WA voters have historically supported Eyman initiatives – approving I-960 in 2007 by 20 points. However, this election marks a dramatic shift as voters in that region are almost evenly split (51% to 49%) with Yakima County actually voting I-1033 down!
A major reason for this shift is an on-going investment in infrastructure that has begun to pay dividends. Central WA Progress, which was launched at the beginning of 2009, brings together progressive organizations and activists around common agenda. Its first campaign focused on the Yakima School Bond, which had not passed in almost 20 years. Through a massive mobilization of young people, targeted outreach to the region’s growing Latino electorate and a disciplined approach to organizing, the bond passed by an astounding 40 point margin! Clearly, with sufficient resources and commitment, Central WA can be a net gain for progressives.
2. Importance of an Energized Base. In a back-of-the envelope analysis of 2008 elections, the most common path to victory for statewide campaigns included a margin of victory in King County by at least 20 points. Peter Goldmark, a Democrat running for Lands Commissioner, unseated incumbent Doug Sutherland through winning King by 24 points, while Gov. Gregoire’s margin was a comfortable 28 points. The main question after the 2008 elections was this – would new and infrequent voters who came out for Barack Obama continue to be engaged in future elections? The answer seems to be yes (for now). In fact, the margin of victory in King County, when all ballot are counted, will end up close to a whopping 33 points. This could signal a significant re-alignment in state politics driven by people who are new to the political process.
Given these factors, a major move towards progressive tax reform could happen in 2010. The governor and legislators are facing another major budget deficit – but this time without the help of major federal stimulus dollars. Will they see the electorate’s shift towards a stronger role of government? Do they have the courage to pass a revenue package that is not just another regressive sales tax increase? Or will they punt to the people to have the final say at the ballot box? Stay tuned!
George Cheung, director of Win/Win Network.
The goal of raising taxes will meet the reality of a growing recession. The US economy is collapsing under a Progressive driven deficit spending spree lasting decades (both Republican and Democrats are to blame). America has over $105 Trillion in unfunded debt and obligations, which doesn’t include local, state, and individual debt. We need a smaller more efficient government that focuses on essentials, not desirables. The recession has just started. We have yet to witness the FHA bailout, the commercial real estate collapse, the underfunded pension bailouts, and restructuring of the retail and trade sectors. The federal government is seeking to absorb much more of the public’s disposable income, which will leave much less for the states in tax revenues.
If you want improvement in education, defund Olympia, issue vouchers and let parents decide.