2009 November 09 | League of Education Voters

Other Voices: Election Viewpoint From The Left

Posted on 09. Nov, 2009 by Jen.

(Other Voices is part of a series of posts by guest bloggers. Today’s post is written by George Cheung, director of Win/Win Network.)

The New Math

On November 3rd, voters in Washington State cast ballots decisively against Initiative 1033. This represents the first defeat for conservative ballot maven, Tim Eyman, on a tax-related issue. But what else can be gleaned from this past election? There are two themes that will have an impact far beyond 2009.

1. Rise of Central WA. Most progressive activists write-off Central WA as a conservative wasteland – a place to drive through on the way to Spokane. It is true that Central WA voters have historically supported Eyman initiatives – approving I-960 in 2007 by 20 points. However, this election marks a dramatic shift as voters in that region are almost evenly split (51% to 49%) with Yakima County actually voting I-1033 down!

A major reason for this shift is an on-going investment in infrastructure that has begun to pay dividends. Central WA Progress, which was launched at the beginning of 2009, brings together progressive organizations and activists around common agenda. Its first campaign focused on the Yakima School Bond, which had not passed in almost 20 years. Through a massive mobilization of young people, targeted outreach to the region’s growing Latino electorate and a disciplined approach to organizing, the bond passed by an astounding 40 point margin! Clearly, with sufficient resources and commitment, Central WA can be a net gain for progressives.

2. Importance of an Energized Base. In a back-of-the envelope analysis of 2008 elections, the most common path to victory for statewide campaigns included a margin of victory in King County by at least 20 points. Peter Goldmark, a Democrat running for Lands Commissioner, unseated incumbent Doug Sutherland through winning King by 24 points, while Gov. Gregoire’s margin was a comfortable 28 points. The main question after the 2008 elections was this - would new and infrequent voters who came out for Barack Obama continue to be engaged in future elections? The answer seems to be yes (for now). In fact, the margin of victory in King County, when all ballot are counted, will end up close to a whopping 33 points. This could signal a significant re-alignment in state politics driven by people who are new to the political process.

Given these factors, a major move towards progressive tax reform could happen in 2010. The governor and legislators are facing another major budget deficit – but this time without the help of major federal stimulus dollars. Will they see the electorate’s shift towards a stronger role of government? Do they have the courage to pass a revenue package that is not just another regressive sales tax increase? Or will they punt to the people to have the final say at the ballot box? Stay tuned!

George Cheung, director of Win/Win Network.

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Other Voices: Election Viewpoint From The Right

Posted on 09. Nov, 2009 by Jen.

(Other Voices is part of a series of posts by guest bloggers. Today’s post is written by Alex Hays, executive director of the Mainstream Republicans of Washington.)

National Significance

2009 was the first election since 1999 not defined by George W. Bush at the national level. Republicans managed an upset win over the immensely better funded John Corzine for the governorship of New Jersey and a noteworthy victory for the governorship of Virginia.

Presidential spokesman Robert Gibbs insisted that the election was not a referendum on President Barrack Obama and the policy agenda of the Democratic Party. Republicans, of course, reject this view and are emboldened by the election.

Historically, American voters have a tendency to seek balance. After the big wins they provided to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 I fully expected Republicans to win in 2009 and I further expect major Republican gains in 2010.

One possible complication for the Republicans is how the special election for the NY 23 U.S. House seat unfolded. Local Republican Party officials nominated a popular, but unusually liberal, Republican State House member. A far right candidate emerged late in the election on the Conservative Party line and became a national cause célèbre for various talk radio hosts and pundits. This led to a weird chain of events where Sarah Palin endorsed the Conservative Party candidates, the Republican nominee suspended her campaign, shortly thereafter endorsed the Democrat and the Democrat won.

Both the right wing of the Republican Party and the moderate wing have taken the events of NY 23 to offer radically different meanings. Conservatives have already voiced a preference for losing elections to a Democrat rather than winning with a moderate Republican. Moderates see the ability of the Republican Party to operate as a big tent coalition threatened by demands for ideological purity and reject the notion that more voters can be attracted to the Republican Party by reducing the number of candidates who can run for office under the Republican banner.

State and Local Races

The national Republican advantage in 2009 did not manifest itself in Washington State – though some counties did see incumbent city council members turned out in large numbers.

Three legislative special elections were held this year and all three saw moderate Republicans emerge as winners, in two cases defeating more conservative Republicans and in the last race defeating an appointed Democrat.

The hottest races on the ballot were definitely in King County.

A heated primary for King County Executive saw a raft of strong Democrat candidates and the non-partisan (read Republican) Susan Hutchison file. A major spending effort on behalf of Dow Constantine by public employees unions helped him emerge from this crowded field and set up the contest with Hutchison.

Hutchison managed several key endorsements – including at least three prominent Democrats, the Seattle times and every Republican in the state. Constantine operated a straight up partisan Democrat campaign and portrayed Hutchison as a far right Republican. He benefited from more public employee spending, where Hutchison was backed by the local building industry, and came out of the election with a very substantial win with 58%.

The race for the Seattle Mayor started with a bang (defeating Greg Nickels in the primary) and ended with a fizzle with two candidates that failed to catch on with the voters. Joe Mallahan offered a well funded campaign, mostly a self funded campaign, that attracted much of the Seattle establishment in the aftermath of Nickels’ defeat. He promised corporate inspired competence. Mike McGinn had little money and ran the sort of grassroots campaign that always fail — except in movie scripts and apparently Seattle. McGinn promised the people a new breed thoughtful nimbyism.

Referendum 71

A common pattern in Washington State is to have a strong vote out of King County overcome the votes from the remainder of the state. R-71 is an extreme example of this pattern– with King County providing 171,000 net votes for the “yes” side – more than twice the statewide margin of 83,000 votes.
R-71 did not follow a partisan vote pattern; instead it presents us with a case of the urban and suburban versus the rural. Solidly Democratic parts of the state (e. g. rural Southwest Washington) provided a strong “no” vote whereas the overwhelming “yes” vote out of King County was made possible by the support of suburban Republicans.
Surprises from the R-71 vote include the strong “no” vote from Spokane and Pierce Counties – suburban Democrats and Republicans in these two areas did not respond to the “yes” message.

Initiative 1033

It’s always easier to promote a “no” vote and I-1033 fits with this pattern. Early polling showed the measure passing by a wide margin, but faced with a very effective campaign the vote was driven down to 42%. The success of the No on 1033 ads can be seen in the vote pattern: counties served by accessible TV markets had strong “no” where counties that are harder to reach with television (e.g., Southwest Washington) did not see this downward shift.
1033 followed a more typical vote pattern than R-71, excepting stronger than usual “no” votes from many heavily Republican counties. I attribute this to the initiative’s impact on local government and the abundance of trusted local government voices –particularly local government Republicans—who opposed the measure.

by Alex Hays, executive director of the Mainstream Republicans of Washington